Weather

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One of the big questions people have this time of year is, "Are the passes going to be clear of snow by race day"? The short answer for `08 is yes. And for the record, in the past four years of mid-June N-to-S divide racing, there's been only one 50 foot stretch of snow-covered pass, period. That was in 2005 climbing out of California Park, down into Hahn's Peak Basin north of Steamboat Springs, CO.

We monitor SNOTEL (SNOpack TELemetry) data periodically and although April can still bring big snows along the Divide, we feel confident in publishing basin readings now as indicative of what we're gonna get. If you're a numbers person, a full report on the GDMBR-USA segment can be read here. We'll try to get a link to Canadian data asap.

The summary as of 3/31:
Canada experienced average to slightly above average snowfall in the Bow and Elk basins. Montana had a pretty average year. As much as 115% of normal snow fell in some parts of the Kootenai but Flathead is at 104% and Clark Fork, Upper Missouri were both normal. Idaho in the vicinity of the Tetons, Henry's Fork and the Wind Rivers varied from 10% above to at or below normal for the season. Wyoming's basins also had a normal year. Colorado had a big year most areas west of the front range. Yampa, Platte and Laramie basins were normal. Upper Colorado is at 125%. Gunnison is at 127%, Arkansas is at nearly 150% and Upper Rio Grande is at 135%. New Mexico had a big year in the North and a poor year to the South. Rio Chama matches Upper Rio Grande snowfall but to the south the Gila saw only 70% of norms. So, true to historical data, "West is best" (west side of the divide) if you depend on lots of snow for fun in the winter.

The Prognosis:
What does it all mean for divide racers? Conditions on course should be pretty average this year for most of the route with the exception of heightened thunderstorm activity along the areas of the Divide with above average snowfall. Expect severe afternoon storm cycles to be robust in SW MT, NE ID and from Steamboat Springs southward into northern NM as snowmelt/evaporation cycles feed convection. It's also uncertain what effect the Cascade's huge year (OR/WA) will have on the Divide. It could pump up the normally rich dew points even more along the west side of the divide, elevating June precip chances (overall) in MT. The strong-to-moderate La Nina we're under this year (now predicted well into summer), as well as the prevailing winds will be important predictors in what happens. For example, this La Nina precip model for CO confirms above avg. precip.

Dirt road conditions are often shaped by Spring weather (April/May). If sudden warm-ups get residents along the divide out working, recreating early then poor weather and rain mix with the activity, it can wreak havoc on the route surfaces. Last year was a weather/route-perfect year for Divide racing. We suspect is won't be quite so "tranquilo" this year but we can always hope...